Tax Refund-Fueled UA: When ROAS Spikes and How to Catch It

Every year, hundreds of billions of dollars flow from the IRS into American bank accounts between February and April. For most people, that money goes toward debt, savings, or a purchase they've been putting off. For app growth marketers? It's one of the best windows of the year to scale user acquisition profitably.

Here's why: tax refund season creates a rare "double tailwind" for ROAS. On the user side, disposable income spikes. On the auction side, ad costs are still recovering from their post-holiday hangover. The combination can produce short-lived efficiency windows that reward teams who are prepared and punish those who aren't paying attention.

This post breaks down exactly when those windows open in 2026, why they happen, and what you can do right now to capture them.

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The 2026 Refund Season Is Bigger Than Usual

Let's start with the numbers, because they matter. So far in 2026, the average refund is worth $3,600, a jump of more than 20% compared to the average refund of just over $3,000 in 2025. That's already meaningful, but the full picture is likely even bigger. According to Morgan Stanley's calculations, these changes could lift total individual tax refunds this year by about $55 billion to a total of $350 billion, with the average refund landing roughly at $3,500.

Why so large? Many analysts attribute the increase in part to changes in the tax code made as part of Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill" passed last year, including no tax on overtime and tips, deductions on auto loan interest for American-made vehicles, and more. 

That is a lot of money hitting consumer wallets in a compressed timeframe.

So far, the IRS has issued $161 billion in refunds in 2026, up from $145 billion at the same time last year. And we're still early in the season.

For UA teams, this translates directly into higher purchase propensity, shorter time-to-first-purchase, and better early-cohort revenue metrics. The question is when, exactly, that money arrives.

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When the Money Actually Lands (Your UA Calendar)

Tax refunds don't trickle in evenly. They arrive in waves, and each wave has different characteristics that matter for your campaigns.

Window A: Early Filers (Late January through Mid-February)

The filing season opened January 26, and fast filers with straightforward returns started receiving refunds within a few weeks. These early refunds skew toward simpler, smaller returns. The big credits haven't hit yet. 

Window B: The PATH Act Wave (Late February through Early March)

This is where things get interesting. Due to the PATH Act, the IRS can't send refunds claiming the earned income tax credit (EITC) or the refundable part of the child tax credit, known as the additional child tax credit (ACTC), until Feb. 15. Once that hold lifts, a massive wave of refunds starts hitting bank accounts.

You can see the effect in the data: from Feb. 13 to Feb. 20, the average tax refund size jumped from $2,476 to $3,804. That's not gradual. That's a step change, driven by EITC and ACTC payments entering the mix. 

The IRS expected most refunds for early filers claiming the earned income tax credit and the additional child tax credit will be available in bank accounts or on debit cards by March 2. This opened the primary strike zone. Be ready to scale budgets fast on proven segments during this window.

Window C: The Long Tail (March through Mid-April)

According to Morgan Stanley, 30% to 45% of refunds are received by taxpayers typically by the end of February. Those figures tend to rise to 60% to 70% by late March. That means a significant share of refund dollars are still landing through March and into April.

Later filers tend to have smaller refunds on average, but the cumulative spending effect persists. This is your window to shift from "catch the spike" to "harvest LTV" with retention offers, subscription pushes, and second-purchase flows.

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Why Refund Dollars Turn Into In-App Spending

You might wonder whether people actually spend their refunds on discretionary items (like in-app purchases) or to pay bills. The answer: both, and the timing matters.

Researchers from the American Economic Journal found that EITC recipients spend 30 cents out of each refund dollar across retail categories within two weeks of issuance. That's a sharp, concentrated spending bump. Combined with recent research from the National Retail Federation, which projects over 10-12% of respondents spending their refunds on major purchases, home improvement, splurge purchases, and vacations, e-commerce and travel apps have a major opportunity to capture additional ROAS.

That’s because people treat refunds differently than regular paychecks. There's a well-documented "found money" effect where lump-sum payments feel more discretionary than your usual salary. This lowers the psychological barrier to making purchases you’ve been putting off, including in-app purchases, subscription upgrades, and premium bundles. 

Durable goods, hardline retail, restaurants and travel industries could see higher demand as consumers channel part of their larger tax refunds into purchases. If your app monetizes in or adjacent to any of these categories, expect stronger conversion rates during the refund windows.

On the other hand, 52% of respondents to the NRF survey this year said they would add refund dollars to their savings account. This could lead to a bump in new accounts opened for finance apps, especially those with high-yield savings accounts. 

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How to Catch the Spike: A Practical Playbook

Knowing the opportunity that tax refunds create, here's what you can do to capitalize on it at this point in the season:

1. Lean Into Value-Based Bidding

If you're running ROAS campaigns on programmatic platforms, refund season is the time to let the algorithm work. Conversion rates rise during refund weeks, so the bidder will naturally find more high-value users. If you have tight targeting guidelines and smaller audiences, consider broadening those to capture these users. Slightly relaxed constraint lets the algorithms win more auctions during this high-intent period without sacrificing efficiency.

2. Reactivate Lapsed Payers

Refund season isn't only about prospecting. Reactivating users who previously made purchases but went dormant can be even more efficient than acquiring cold traffic, especially when those users suddenly have extra cash.

Target lapsed payers (last purchase 30-180 days ago) with re-engagement campaigns. For gaming apps, highlight new content or limited-time bundles. For shopping apps, resurface wishlisted items. For subscription apps, offer a discounted return month.

3. Align Offers to Refund Psychology

When people have "bonus money," their purchasing behavior shifts. They're more open to mid-tier and premium purchases they'd normally skip. Try a few tactical adjustments:

• Time-boxed bundles: Create limited-time value packs aligned with common refund amounts. Don't just push whale-priced packs. Include accessible mid-tier options ($9.99-$29.99) that feel like a "treat."
• First-purchase acceleration: Starter packs, first-order coupons, or introductory subscription pricing that converts intent into action while it's hot.
• Reduce payment friction: One-tap purchasing flows, stored payment prompts, and simplified checkout can meaningfully lift conversion rates when intent is already high.
  

4. Phase Your Creative Strategy

"Tax season" creative gets stale fast if you run the same angle for two months. Phase it instead across six weeks:

• First two weeks: "Your refund just dropped. Here's how to use it." Focus on aspiration and upgrade messaging.
• Second two weeks: "Limited time," "bundle value," "treat yourself" angles. This is the peak conversion window.
• Third two weeks: Shift to retention and LTV messaging. "Make it last," or position your app's ongoing value (subscriptions, long-term savings).

Measurement Pitfalls to Watch

Short-lived spikes can create noise in your data if you're not careful. It’s important to keep few things to keep in mind as results come in.

Watch for "false whale" signals 

Users acquired during refund season may look like high-value purchasers early on, but some are one-time spenders fueled by the temporary liquidity. Compare D7 and D30 ARPU for refund-season cohorts against your baseline. If D7 is strong but D30 drops off, adjust your LTV models accordingly, and tag these users for seasonal re-engagement next year.

Choose the right payback window 

For gaming in-app purchases (IAP), D1-D3 ROAS might be the right decision metric during refund season. For e-commerce or marketplace apps, D7-D14 makes more sense. For subscriptions, you'll need D30+. Don't use the same ROAS window for every vertical just because the spike is short.

Make sure your attribution is clean 

Spikes are short. You can't afford broken purchase postbacks, missing revenue mapping, or delayed event reporting during the two or three weeks that matter most. Run a QA pass on your in-app purchase events, SKAN conversion value schemas (make sure they map high-ticket purchases correctly), and MMP configurations.

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Make 2026 Your Best Tax Season Yet

The 2026 refund season is unusually favorable for user acquisition. Morgan Stanley estimates that this year's outsized refunds could fuel a 4.1% increase in real disposable income in the first quarter. That's a notable bump, especially after a period of consumer caution. 

That leaves a meaningful share of refund dollars flowing into discretionary spending. And for app marketers, even the "pay down debt" crowd is exhibiting higher engagement with their devices during this period: checking balances, comparing options, browsing deals. That engagement translates into more available inventory, and more competitive CPMs. 

But knowing the opportunity exists and actually capturing it are two different things. The ROAS windows described above are real, and they're short. Teams that move fast, with the right creative phasing, the right bidding posture, and clean attribution, will capture outsized returns. 

Bidease has been helping mobile apps win tax season for over a decade. We've seen these windows open and close across gaming, e-commerce, fintech, and subscription verticals, and we know exactly how to optimize for them. Our AI-driven models are built specifically for mobile programmatic UA and retargeting, and our team of dedicated experts works alongside you as a true partner, not a black box.

If you want a tax refund-season strategy built around your app's vertical, your user economics, and your ROAS targets, let's talk. Reach out to the Bidease team today and let's build your tax refund playbook together.

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